A March 2026 poll of likely Los Angeles County voters shows Captain Mike Bornman leading the field for LA County Sheriff — after voters are told who he is. Bornman surged to first place once survey respondents learned about his career and record. The results point to a candidate with significant untapped support and a race that is far from settled.
A Wide-Open Race
The 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff’s race features three major candidates: retired Captain Mike Bornman, a 36-year veteran of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department; incumbent Sheriff Robert Luna, appointed in 2022; and former Sheriff Alex Villanueva, who held the office from 2018 to 2022. With the June primary still months away, the contest is being shaped by one central question: how much of the electorate has actually made up its mind?
The answer, according to the Stewart Digital Affairs survey, is very few. When asked for their initial ballot preference before receiving any candidate information, more than half of voters — 53.5% — were undecided.
About Captain Mike Bornman
Voters were presented with the following background on Captain Bornman before being asked their final ballot preference.
Captain Mike Bornman spent 36 years with the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, rising from a patrol deputy at Firestone Station in South LA to one of the department’s most decorated command officers. His career spanned patrol, investigations, internal affairs, custody operations, and executive leadership — a breadth of experience few candidates in this race can match.
As a sergeant, Bornman was selected to serve on a high-priority joint task force with the FBI, IRS, and the U.S. Attorney’s Office. He later joined the Internal Affairs Bureau, where he investigated hundreds of cases involving deputy-involved shootings and use of force incidents. His reputation for rigorous, ethical investigation led to a direct appointment as aide to a Department Assistant Sheriff, where he helped create the Deputy Performance Profile and the Personnel Performance Index — department-wide tools designed to identify and address problematic conduct among officers.
As a lieutenant, Bornman oversaw inmate classification and housing across the LASD jail system and served as Law Enforcement Liaison to the city of La Cañada Flintridge. He also designed and launched the SHARE Tolerance Program, a mobile hate crime education initiative for middle and high school students that earned the Helene and Joseph Sherwood Prize for Combatting Hate, presented by the ADL and the Museum of Tolerance.
Promoted to Captain, Bornman was chosen to create and build out the Education Based Incarceration Bureau (EBI), which provides education and life skills training to incarcerated individuals, and the Community Transition Unit, which helps people leaving the jail system access housing and treatment programs. He later led the Population Management Bureau, overseeing intake, classification, and housing for the entire LASD jail system.
Captain Bornman holds a Master’s Degree in Organizational Leadership, a Bachelor’s Degree in English Writing, and an Associate’s Degree in Police Science, along with executive certifications from Cornell University and Texas A&M University. He has received the LASD’s Exemplary Service Award three times and the Distinguished Service Award three times.
Voter Sentiment
Once voters were presented with factual information about each candidate’s background and record, the race shifted decisively. For many voters, learning about Bornman’s 36-year career — his work on joint federal task forces with the FBI and U.S. Attorney’s Office, his role building officer accountability systems inside the department, his creation of the Education Based Incarceration Bureau and Community Transition Unit, and his six combined Exemplary and Distinguished Service Awards — appeared to be the deciding factor. Among the 137 respondents who expressed a preference after learning about the candidates, Bornman led the field with 28.5% support — a nearly eightfold increase from his starting position. Luna held second at 24.8%, while Villanueva fell to third at 16.1%.
Of the 91 voters who started the survey undecided, 22 moved to Bornman — the largest share of any candidate. Nine additional Villanueva supporters switched to Bornman after hearing the candidate bios. Not a single voter who started with Bornman left him after the information was presented.
Candidate Favorability: Bornman Generates the Most Positive Reaction
Voters were asked whether learning about each candidate made them more likely, just as likely, or less likely to support them for Sheriff. The results reveal a sharp contrast between the three candidates.
Bornman was the only candidate to generate net positive movement. Among the 147 voters who answered the favorability question about him, 40.8% said they were more likely to vote for him after learning his background — with 27 saying “much more likely” and 33 “somewhat more likely.” Only 27.9% were less likely, giving Bornman a net favorability of +13 points among those who engaged with his biography.
Luna fared significantly worse. Among those who answered his favorability question, 53.9% said the information made them less likely to vote for him, compared to 24.1% more likely — a net of -30 points.
Villanueva generated the strongest negative reaction of any candidate. Among those who answered his favorability question, 71.4% said the information made them less likely to support him, with 78 respondents choosing “much less likely.” Only 13.6% said they were more likely to vote for Villanueva — a net favorability of -58 points.
Where Bornman’s Support Comes From
Bornman’s surge represents a net gain of 33 votes within this sample — the largest movement of any candidate in either direction. That growth came from across the spectrum:
Zero voters left Bornman once they had learned about him. His retention rate among his initial supporters was 100%.
This pattern — low initial name ID, high conversion once informed, zero defection — is the signature of a candidate whose challenge is awareness, not acceptance. Voters who find out about Bornman tend to support him.
Villanueva’s High Name ID Is a Liability, Not an Asset
Alex Villanueva entered the survey as the name recognition leader, with 21.2% of voters choosing him before any information was presented. By the end of the survey, he had fallen to 16.1% — losing nearly a quarter of his initial support once voters were reminded of his record in office.
His favorability numbers were the worst of any candidate tested. Nearly three in four voters — 71.4% — said the information about Villanueva made them less likely to support him for Sheriff. His name ID, built during a contentious four-year tenure, appears to be working against him among the broader electorate of likely voters.
Luna Holds His Base but Struggles with Persuadable Voters
Incumbent Sheriff Robert Luna showed resilience among his existing supporters but was unable to expand his coalition once voters learned more about each candidate. Luna finished second in the informed ballot at 24.8%, essentially holding the 15.9% of voters who started with him while adding some undecided voters — but also losing two initial supporters to Bornman.
Notably, more than half of voters — 53.9% — said that learning about Luna made them less likely to support him. For an incumbent running on his record, that level of negative movement among persuadable voters is a significant challenge heading into a competitive primary.
Conclusion
The Stewart Digital Affairs February-March 2026 survey of Los Angeles County likely voters tells a straightforward story: the LA County Sheriff’s race is winnable, and the candidate best positioned to win it — once voters know who he is — is Captain Mike Bornman.
Bornman entered the survey as an unknown. He left it leading the field. His favorability numbers are the only positive net in the race. His conversion rate among undecided voters was the highest of any candidate. And he did not lose a single initial supporter once his record was presented.
The race remains fluid — nearly a quarter of deciding voters are still undecided even after receiving candidate information, and the sample carries a margin of error of ±6.4 points. But the underlying dynamics are clear: Bornman’s ceiling is high, his floor is solid, and the voters who learn about him are the voters who support him.
Methodology
Conducted by Stewart Digital Affairs between February 15th and March 3rd, 2026, this survey utilized a probability-based approach in which each member of the likely voter universe in Los Angeles County had an equal and known chance of being selected. The survey was administered online via the VoterSaurus platform, with invitations sent by email to a random sample drawn from the Los Angeles County likely voter file.
The poll results adhere to the best practices and methods for polling set forth by the AAPOR (American Association for Public Opinion Research).
Universe: Los Angeles County likely voters (50,000 voters contacted)
Respondents: 170 completed responses
Survey Administration: Online survey via VoterSaurus platform; invitations sent by email. Participants answered a structured sequence of questions beginning with an initial ballot preference, followed by candidate biographical information, candidate favorability questions, and a final ballot preference question.
Margin of Error: The calculated margin of error for this survey is ±6.4 percentage points at a 90% confidence level. This reflects the precision of the poll’s findings given the sample size and sampling method.
Funding and Conflict of Interest: Funding for the poll was provided by Stewart Digital Affairs. No organizations with vested interests in the survey topic contributed to the poll’s funding or design.
Data Use and Publication: The poll’s findings are intended for both public and private dissemination, aimed at informing voters and stakeholders about the current state of the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff’s race.
Survey Questions
1. If the election for Los Angeles County Sheriff were held today, who would you vote for?
2. Does the information about Mike Bornman make you more likely, just as likely, or less likely to vote for him for Sheriff?
3. Does the information about Robert Luna make you more likely, just as likely, or less likely to vote for him for Sheriff?
4. Does the information about Alex Villanueva make you more likely, just as likely, or less likely to vote for him for Sheriff?
5. After hearing this information, if the election for Los Angeles County Sheriff were held today, who would you vote for?